What will happen in the Iran war | Sevan Nişanyan

Mavi Boncuk |

What will happen in the Iran war

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown - Will the US join the war - Why is the US public against the war - Can Israel win alone - Why did Netanyahu attack - What happens if Israel is defeated - How will Palestine be resolved

Sevan Nişanyan[1] |SOURCE [IN TURKISH]

[1] In his own words

Former Turkish citizen. Armenian citizen. Author of Nişanyan Dictionary, Turkish Place Names Dictionary, Turkish Personal Names Dictionary, etc. Hotelier. Traveler. Prison escapee. Has five children. Homeless. Married.

Eski Türkiyeli. Ermenistan vatandaşı. Nişanyan Sözlük, Türkiye Yer Adları Sözlüğü, Türkiye Kişi Adları Sözlüğü vs. yazarı. Otelci. Seyyah. Cezaevi kaçkını. Beş çocuklu. Evsiz. Evli.

Jun 21, 2025

Will the Iranian regime be overthrown?

I see no indication that the Iranian regime is weaker than any other regime – say, Israel or the US.

There is certainly opposition. There is weariness brought on by living under siege for 45 years. However, nowhere in the world would a coup or revolution take place against a government that is fighting for its life against an unjust attack. There is no example. No person with the least bit of morality would side with an enemy that bombs their neighbors, relatives, cities, national symbols, even if they do not like the government. The entire Iranian people, from the most bigoted to the most liberal, will unite around the regime — unless the regime suffers a heavy and clear defeat on the battlefield.

There is no leadership that can be an alternative to the regime in the political arena. So much so that the Americans could not find anyone other than the spoiled son of the person that all Iranians probably hate the most as a leader. Imagine what would happen if they were to choose Vahdettin’s son as an alternative 45 years after the Republic.

Hoping for help from ethnic divisions within the country is a pipe dream. Iran is not an artificial state like Syria or Iraq; it has a strong national identity that has been formed over hundreds of years. The Kurds they are trying to provoke have a population share of four percent; they do not have a serious political organization; their chances of receiving help from abroad are zero. As for the Azeris, they have always been more Iranian than Iranians; this time it will be no different.

Will the US join the war?

I don't think so.

First, unless they force the Iranian regime to surrender in a few days with a terror operation that we cannot even imagine, the probability of winning the war is very low. They invaded Iraq with their actual ground forces; Iran does not have such a possibility. They occupied Afghanistan for twenty years but were still defeated. They could not even bring a miserable country like Yemen to its knees with aerial bombardment.

Second, Iran's counter-attack capacity is at a level that the US cannot accept. Closing the Strait of Hormuz, bombing US bases in the Middle East, and bombing Arab countries’ oil facilities in response to an attack from US bases would be devastating for the US – and the entire world.

Third, if the war drags on, it is inevitable that Russia and/or China will openly or covertly support Iran. Don’t listen to diplomatic behavior at this stage. Iran falling into chaos OR coming under NATO control are unacceptable risks for either Russia or China. In a long-term war, stopping oil shipments from the Middle East may be an attractive opportunity for Russia, but it is a deadly threat for China, which meets half of its fuel needs from the Middle East.

Fourthly and most importantly, the US (and European) public support for the war with Iran is at around 10-20%. There is a strong belief that this is an illegitimate war that does not serve US national interests, and more importantly, this view has almost completely taken control of Trump’s base. It does not seem logical for Trump to take a step that will completely isolate him in the political arena and leave him in the hands of the Neocon gang who hate him.

Why is the US public against the war?

In the last two and a half years, Western public opinion has been engaged in the following views with an unprecedented bombardment:

1. The state of Israel is committing crimes against humanity in Gaza; it is deliberately killing children; it is bombing hospitals.

2. Zionists have taken over Western political institutions through bribery or blackmail.

3. The US is tied against Netanyahu’s adventurous policies.

The reason for the prevalence of these views is of course the rebellion of the public conscience, the sense of right and justice, the love of truth, etc. It may be. However, it must be admitted that the public conscience, which is not normally inclined to such things – for example, it has maintained its indifference to all forms of oppression in Afghanistan, Yemen, Sudan, Libya, Rwanda – has been agitated this time, and it is surprising. The fact that the US propaganda industry, which has never given up its world championship in directing public opinion, seems to have been knocked out this time is, in my opinion, a situation that requires explanation.

Let us suffice with asking the questions a) What is the practical result of the propaganda defeat in the real world, and b) Could this result have been consciously targeted?

Can Israel win alone?

Unless the US actually enters the war, Israel has no chance of winning.

When Israel launched its first missile attack on June 12, the world hesitated for a day or two. However, the hesitation was overcome with the start of the Iran counterattack. It was seen that Iran was more than ready for war in terms of a) determination, b) technology, c) industrial capacity, d) strategic intelligence. Under these conditions, a state with 10 times the population of its opponent, 74 times the land area, and four times the national income on a ppp basis has zero chance of defeat.

(I asked Grok for the numbers.)

Why did Netanyahu attack?

The cross-examination phase of the trial in June, where the Israeli prime minister is being tried with a request for 13 years in prison, has begun. On June 10, the UK, Canada, Australia and Norway announced a package of sanctions against two key ministers in the Netanyahu government, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. On June 11, the Netanyahu government came close to falling in parliament.

In light of these facts, it can be thought that Netanyahu gave the order for the attack, at least in part, out of concern for his own future. Since he took this step, he must have trusted that the US would inevitably come to his aid.

On the other hand, when we look at the incident from this perspective, it is doubtful that the unconditional pro-Israel policy that the US administration has adopted or seems to have adopted for a while is perhaps not as irrational as it is thought. In order for Netanyahu to take this step, he needed to trust the unconditional support of the US. They made him trust.

What happens if Israel is defeated?

The most immediate outcome is for Netanyahu to leave. Could this be the US's covert goal? I think it is a strong possibility. This is probably the step that will ensure that the Israeli state is preserved for a while longer with its current structure.

In the event of a regime change, the US will try with all its might to ensure that the status quo in Israel is preserved to the extent possible, will make Iran agree to a ceasefire with some concessions, and will intervene actively if necessary to ensure security within Israel.

Interestingly, Russia's preference will also be to prevent a total collapse in Israel. Therefore, it seems possible to make post-war arrangements with the joint initiative of the US and Russia.

How will the Palestinian problem be solved?

A two-state solution is an absurd dream. A Palestinian state divided into two parts, riddled with Israeli colonies, devoid of natural resources, dependent on Israel for water, electricity and employment is not a state but a bantustan. A two-state solution has only one meaning: depriving an integral part of the country's population of the right to vote.

There are only two solutions in the real world.

a) Convincing the Palestinians to migrate. At this stage, this does not seem possible. The fact that no concrete proposal has emerged to date, despite this being openly or covertly suggested for two and a half years, shows that this option is unrealistic. Will they go to Patagonia? Will they settle in Ukraine? Will they become refugees in Europe?

b) Integrating the Palestinians into the Jewish-Muslim state with full citizenship rights.

I think that the latter will happen sooner or later. The Jews will be a minority in the new state. The name of the state will need to be changed. In order for the transformation to be bloodless, an international police force – perhaps the US or Russia together with the US – will need to take an active role. The new state will probably need to be denuclearized.

I think this is the reasonable solution for all countries in the region and even Türkiye.

[1] In his own words

Former Turkish citizen. Armenian citizen. Author of Nişanyan Dictionary, Turkish Place Names Dictionary, Turkish Personal Names Dictionary, etc. Hotelier. Traveler. Prison escapee. Has five children. Homeless. Married.

Eski Türkiyeli. Ermenistan vatandaşı. Nişanyan Sözlük, Türkiye Yer Adları Sözlüğü, Türkiye Kişi Adları Sözlüğü vs. yazarı. Otelci. Seyyah. Cezaevi kaçkını. Beş çocuklu. Evsiz. Evli.