Mavi Boncuk |A crude Excel chart predicts the next "Lesser Judgment Day". 2113 | Next Buyuk Felaket
It is the stuff of legend. Known as "Lesser Judgment Day", the old city walls crumbled, mosques were leveled, and Marmara sea levels rose to unprecedented heights. Over 500 years ago, in 1509, the approximately 7.0-magnitude earthquake almost ruined Constantinople (modern-day Istanbul).
It destroyed about 1,000 buildings and killed between 4,000 and 12,000 people; aftershocks were felt for more than a month after the ground first shook.
Located on the North Anatolian fault line, Istanbul and its surrounding areas have been hit by an estimated 120 earthquakes over the last 2,000 years, according to the Istanbul municipality's Disaster Coordination Center. More than 110,000 deaths, 250,000 hospitalizations and 600,000 destroyed housing units were recorded across Turkey as a result of earthquakes in the 20th century.
Experts estimate that there is a 65 percent probability that another major earthquake (7.0-magnitude or higher) will strike Istanbul's approximately 14 million residents in the next 30 years.
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